https://fred.stlouisfed.org/collection/T10Y3M
Often it is the most effective indicator of upcoming recession,6-12months after its inverted,that may put recession round Q2-This fall 2023.
In final 25 years it was inverted 2 instances. 2000 dotcom and 2008 monetary disaster.Few months later we had recession and market backside in mid of recession.
It was additionally inverted in late 2019 and in march 2020 we had massive crash(partially was beacuse of covid however we additionally printed our manner out of this).
Your opinion?
