Hey, do you keep in mind that superior rally after Powell’s speech final week…and the way the bulls have been claiming victory as shares went hovering above the 200 day transferring common?
Sure, that bout of irrational exuberance is over as foretold in my final commentary: Is the Bear Market Over??? (spoiler alert…NO IT AINT OVER!).
The extra up to date, educated, and elucidated model of that story is shared with you under… Market Commentary
Certainly, it seems like Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley referred to as it proper when he beforehand predicted shares would rally to a variety of 4,000 to 4,150 on the earlier than the bear market resumes in earnest. Thus, after reaching these short-term heights final week he’s now reminding everyone to arrange for backside someplace .
This outlook just isn’t a shock to Reitmeister Complete Return members as I’ve been beating the drum about this being a long run bear market the place now we have not but seen backside. And to not be suckered in by any of those seemingly spectacular bear market rallies as they’re all simply mirages.
This explains why I nonetheless have a hedged portfolio in place to revenue because the serpentine sample of this market finally winds decrease. Similar to the +1.86% acquire the previous 3 brutal periods for the general market. The oddity of latest motion is what has develop into bullish vs. bearish catalysts. I assumed it might be helpful to summarize that for you of us at the moment to understand the occasions that result in rallies…and people who get us again in bear market mode.
NOTE OF CAUTION: What I’m about to share is the present triggers for worth motion. Nevertheless, there’s a bizarro world inverse logic being utilized by bulls that will not final over the lengthy haul. Extra on that within the subsequent part.
What Are the Bullish Catalysts for Immediately’s Market?
Something that factors to softening inflation.
This could are available in many kinds. First, is precise inflation experiences just like the early November CPI/PPI experiences that got here in decrease than anticipated. This potential signaling that inflation has peaked was like consuming 5 Pink Bulls for merchants to bid up costs. Sure, 7.7% inflation is healthier than the earlier 8% charge. However an extended, lengthy, good distance from the two% Fed goal which is why Powell has been clear that they are going to keep hawkish for an extended, lengthy, very long time.
Additionally on this class of disinflationary information is weak financial experiences. That is the bizarro world idea I referred to early. That’s as a result of usually the chain response works like this:
Weak financial information > better probability of recession > decrease company earnings > decrease share costs
But at this stage, when traders are myopically targeted on solely inflation, then they see the equation as follows:
Weak financial information > better probability of recession > tamps down inflation > much less hawkish Fed involvement > the earlier the Fed will decrease charges sooner or later > the extra bullish long run for shares > let’s purchase shares NOW!
This latter equation could appear logical on the floor, but fully misses the superior, and extra traditionally correct aforementioned model of the bearish chain response to this information. And thus it explains why the market too simply sloughed off the really weak final Thursday.
Usually the primary studying underneath 50 would have traders dashing to hit the promote button. But traders have been more than pleased to be drunk with bullishness final week as this report got here in at 47.7.
This “unhealthy information is nice information” mantra is identical flawed logic that had traders shopping for up shares in November and December of 2008 as they noticed it resulting in extra favorable Fed actions. Nevertheless, as we will clearly see within the chart under that rally gave method to a a lot nastier drop in early 2009 given how decimated the financial system was demanding decrease inventory costs.
That last leg down in Q1 of 2009 grew to become the true and lasting backside earlier than the subsequent bull market emerged. And sure, I sense that very same form of formation could also be taking maintain now with decrease lows in early 2023 earlier than it’s really time to be bullish as soon as once more. (Thus mirroring the view shared by Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley (NYSE:)).
Now let’s contemplate the flipside of the coin…
What Are the Bearish Catalysts for Immediately’s Market?
The inverse of above. That being something that factors to inflation remaining too excessive for too lengthy.
The right instance is what occurred Friday when the Authorities employment report confirmed strong job positive aspects of 263,000. Properly above expectations.
However what actually bought traders choked up was the sticky wage inflation that Powell mentioned in his most up-to-date speech. 12 months over yr it got here in at 5.1% when solely 4.6% was anticipated. That’s as a result of the month over month enhance was 2X expectations.
The preliminary response to this information was a -1.5% dump premarket. But little by little the bullish momentum from earlier within the week returned to eat away at these losses resulting in an almost breakeven shut. Over the weekend traders have been clearly stewing on this info as they got here out of the gate this week in a promoting temper.
-1.79% on Monday
-1.44% on Tuesday
-0.19% on Wednesday
0.75% on Thursday
Added altogether the beginning of the week wiped off the board everything of final week’s illogical and ill-fated rally, earlier than a short restoration yesterday.
To me there may be little doubt that the percentages of recession and deepening of the bear market have elevated given latest financial information. Heck, even simply the Chicago PMI coming in at 37.2 final week ought to have been sufficient for many traders. That’s as a result of 8 out of the final 8 recessions have been signaled by this report coming in underneath 40.
And don’t overlook the deepening of the inverted yield curve which is as tried and true in calling a recession as any indicator. That bought kicked into excessive gear the previous couple weeks as the ten yr Treasury charge has tumbled.
Attention-grabbing to notice that even the two yr charge is down of late as a result of it’s broadly believed the recession is within the works for 2023 which has disinflationary properties (like wiping out many roles > decrease earnings > decrease demand (spending) > decrease costs).
For as apparent as these bearish catalysts seem like, it might additionally not shock me to see a repeat of 2008/2009 cycle as famous earlier. That being a market staying aloft on the “unhealthy information is nice information mantra” coupled with a dose of Santa Claus rally.
The purpose being that this week’s decline could also be nothing greater than taking some froth out of the latest rally…however not essentially an indication that traders are able to retest the October lows. In truth, I might guess on us settling into a brief vary between the bear market designation line of three,855 on the low aspect and the 200 day transferring common on the excessive aspect (4,040).
Within the meantime, the next experiences can be intently watched given their give attention to inflation and sure Fed actions:
12/9 (PPI),
12/13 (CPI)
12/14
The long-term development remains to be bearish. Little or no doubt about that. The one actual query is when that comes again into play and we retest the October lows.
That might begin in December if the above experiences level to sticky inflation that retains the Fed elevating charges a lot additional, which solely exacerbates already declining financial exercise. Nevertheless, if bulls proceed to learn the indicators flawed, then they might have another burst of exercise in December to shut at close to time period highs earlier than the rug will get pulled out in early 2023.
All of the above explains why I stay decidedly bearish with a portfolio constructed to not simply climate the storm…however truly accumulate positive aspects as the general market heads decrease. That features our 3 day acquire of +1.86% because the market tanked.
With the market closing at the moment at 3,933 and a possible backside 20% decrease within the coming yr, explains why it isn’t too late to make use of the methods advocated in Reitmeister Complete Return when you’ve got not already.
This commentary is an edited model that’s used within the Reitmeister Complete Return publication. Learn extra of Steve Reitmeister’s commentaries >>
