https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/outlook-2023-us-expected-to-escape-recession.html
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/macro-outlook-2023-this-cycle-is-different.html
Goldman Sach’s economists say that there’s a 35% likelihood that the US suggestions into recession over the subsequent yr.
They are saying that the US might keep away from a downturn partially as a result of information on financial exercise is nowhere near recessionary. GDP grew 2.6% (annualized) within the third quarter, in keeping with an advance report. The nation additionally added 261,000 jobs final month.
Their economists don’t count on a charge lower till the second quarter of 2024. “With a resilient labor market and nonetheless elevated inflation, we don’t see any charge cuts in 2023 until the economic system enters recession in spite of everything,” states Jan Hatzius, head of Goldman Sachs Analysis and the agency’s chief economist.
What are your ideas?
