I made a decision to make use of the day without work to do some completely ineffective evaluation of 3-day weekends.
Abstract
Shopping for on the shut on Friday and promoting on the open on Tuesday averages a 56% success fee and 0.03% returns. Nonetheless, in case you held till Tuesday’s shut or tried to purchase at open on Tuesday and promote on the shut, your outcomes are worse (and far worse during the last 10 years).
Information
Here’s a Google Sheet with all 3-Day Weekend Returns since SPY began in 1993. It reveals the Friday Near Tuesday Open returns, Friday Near Tuesday Shut returns, and Tuesday Open to Tuesday Shut returns, for all 3-day weekends.
Evaluation
There have been 188 3-day weekends. 56% of the time, the SPY opens increased on Tuesday morning than it closed on Friday evening with common returns of 0.03%.
One of the best day was September, eighth, 1998. When you would’ve purchased on Friday, September 4th, you’ll’ve woken as much as 3.2% good points on Tuesday.
The worst day was January 22, 2008. You’ll’ve woken up down 3.7%.
within the final 10 years, 3-day weekends have been higher. There have been 64 3-day weekends. Solely 52% have been optimistic, however the common returns have been 0.08%!
Tables
General Returns
DateValueBest Return1998-09-083.20percentWorst Return2008-01-22-3.67percentAverage Return0.03percentAnnualized Returns7.8percentSuccess Rate55.85%
Final 10 Years
DateValueBest Return2020-05-262.20percentWorst Return2020-09-08-1.71percentAverage Return0.08percentAnnualized Return22percentSuccess Rate51.56%
Conclusion
Not very helpful nor very attention-grabbing lol.
*Replace:
Somebody wished to see regular 2-day weekend returns.
DateValueBest Return2008-10-136.07percentWorst Return2020-03-16-10.45percentAverage Return0.04percentAnnualized Returns10.5percentSuccess Rate57.61%
**Replace:
Somebody wished the Friday earlier than 3-day weekend returns (Friday Shut / Friday Open). It’d take longer to restrict to simply Fridays, so I did the day earlier than a 3-day weekend (both Thursday or Friday).
The common return was precisely 0% since 1993, however the final 5 years seems fairly a bit totally different (may be as a result of small quantity of information).
DateValueBest Return2022-05-271.8percentWorst Return2022-09-02-2.01percentAverage Return0.10percentAnnualized Returns29percentSuccess Rate66%
