On Saturday 25 February 2023, voters in Nigeria will head to the polls to elect their subsequent president. Amid rising discontent as a consequence of financial hardship and mounting insecurity, residents in Africa’s most populous nation and largest economic system will forged their ballots hoping for a brand new period.
To evaluate public notion within the days main as much as the election, GeoPoll carried out a survey utilizing its proprietary SMS and cellular internet analysis platforms. The multi-modal examine used a easy random sampling method from GeoPoll’s and third-party databases to realize a various pattern of 434 voting-age adults from throughout Nigeria.
Given the comparatively small pattern dimension, this examine shouldn’t be supposed to foretell the outcomes of the election in any approach, however quite to offer a directional snapshot of public sentiment because the election approaches.
Findings from the examine are detailed on this put up. To view the total outcomes, filterable by query, state, gender, and age group, scroll right down to the Interactive Knowledge Dashboard.
Public Notion and Outlook
With Nigeria dealing with quite a few challenges, together with a rising price of residing, document unemployment, and widespread poverty and insecurity, if follows that nearly half of respondents imagine Nigeria goes within the “improper route.”
Greater than 2 out of three respondents (67%) aged 36 and older imagine the nation goes within the improper route.
The perceived trajectory of the nation has most feeling “pissed off” with the present scenario (58%). This holds true throughout gender and age teams.
Though frustration is the main public sentiment proper now, “hopeful” is second at 38%, illustrating an no less than considerably constructive outlook. Additional, when requested straight about the way forward for Nigeria, 69% of respondents say they suppose it would get “higher” in comparison with solely 12% that imagine it would worsen.
To ensure that Nigeria to maneuver ahead, nevertheless, respondents say the nation should first take care of widespread “corruption.”
Greater than 1 in 4 respondents view “safety” as the most important problem to peace and stability in Nigeria (28%).
Entry to Election Information and Info
Nigerians are paying shut consideration as they put together to vote in what has turn out to be a extremely contentious election. In our examine, nearly all respondents say they’re following details about the election no less than day by day (89%).
89% say they’re following details about the election no less than day by day
Some really feel unhappy with the data they’re getting, nevertheless. Solely 62% say they can entry all of the true and correct details about the election that they want.
Disinformation is clearly a priority. Greater than 9 out of 10 respondents (94%) suspect no less than “just a little” of the data they’ve seen or heard concerning the election to be false or inaccurate.
In January 2023, a BBC investigation concluded that political events and supporters in Nigeria have been illegally paying social media influencers to unfold disinformation about their opponents within the upcoming election. Latest stories in The Guardian additionally uncovered disinformation ways used to govern the ends in Nigeria’s 2015 election.
Voting Intentions
Public curiosity and engagement within the upcoming election is illustrated in the truth that 86% of respondents say they’ve registered to vote.
86% say they’ve a Everlasting Voter’s Card (PVC)
Voter turnout in Nigeria has been on a gentle decline over the previous 20 years. The political events and candidates have been working arduous throughout this election cycle to reverse these traits, however issues about turnout stay. Regardless of the 86% of respondents that say they’ve registered to vote and the 65% that declare they’re “very seemingly” to vote, the proportion of individuals that really present up on election day to forged their poll will seemingly fall far beneath these lofty claims.
Chance to vote will increase with age. These saying they’re “very seemingly” to vote ranges from 59% for respondents aged 18-25 to 70% for respondents aged 36 and older. The imply scores vary from 3.99 to 4.23 on a 5-point scale.
No matter age group, the most important phase of respondents (71%) says their alternative for President can be primarily based on “competence.” “Belief” and a “clear manifesto” are additionally necessary concerns for many.
Belief within the Electoral Course of
Belief within the electoral course of is crucial for decreasing voter apathy and growing turnout. Following credible stories in earlier elections of poll stuffing and paying for votes, the Impartial Nationwide Electoral Fee (INEC) says it has applied applied sciences and different measures to assist make sure that this election is free from fraud and corruption.
To evaluate voting-age Nigerians’ perceptions of the electoral course of within the week main as much as the election, we offered them a collection of statements associated to the method and requested whether or not they agree or disagree with every assertion.
Greater than half of respondents (52%) imagine within the electoral course of sufficient to agree or strongly agree that the outcomes of the 2023 elections can be accepted by all Nigerians. Solely 5% strongly disagree.
Nearly half (49%) agree or strongly agree that the elections can be freed from fraud. That proportion drops to 40% for respondents aged 18-25. Males categorical extra belief in a fraud-free election than ladies (51% to 43%).
Though nearly 2 in 3 respondents agree or strongly agree that INEC is clear and informs the general public and media about its actions (65%), considerably much less imagine INEC is an impartial establishment and never shouldn’t be influenced by political concerns (50%).
With stories of INEC places of work being attacked within the months main as much as the election, solely 43% of respondents agree or strongly agree that the elections can be freed from violence and intimidation.
General, greater than 2 in 3 respondents (67%) categorical no less than “a good quantity” of confidence within the capability of INEC to arrange credible elections.
Interactive Knowledge Dashboard
Dive deeper into GeoPoll’s knowledge on the Nigeria elections utilizing the interactive dashboard beneath. The dashboard gives responses to every query within the survey, filterable by state, age group, and gender.
Conduct Multi-modal Analysis with GeoPoll
GeoPoll is a full-service market and social analysis company that conducts surveys by way of computer-assisted phone interviewing (CATI), computer-assisted private interviewing (CAPI), brief message service (SMS), WhatsApp, and cellular internet/cellular utility communications. We additionally conduct on-line and offline qualitative analysis.
This examine was applied by GeoPoll utilizing our personal cellular analysis platform. The questionnaire was designed by GeoPoll researchers and carried out by way of SMS and cellular internet know-how. Knowledge assortment occurred from February 14-18, 2023. The varied pattern features a gender composition of 33% females and 67% males, an age breakdown of twenty-two% aged 18-25, 45% aged 26-35, and 33% aged 36 and over, and illustration from each state (ADM1) in Nigeria.
For extra info on the pattern and methodology for this examine or to conduct a analysis examine of your personal utilizing our multi-modal analysis platform, contact us at the moment.
