On the finish of June, see , we discovered utilizing the Elliott Wave Precept (EWP) for the (SPX) that:
“…The index to finish the orange W-5 of the gray W-iii at ideally $4460+/-5, then a gray W-iv all the way down to ideally $4425+/-5 adopted by a final gray W-v to ideally $4470-4485. … This upside goal matches nicely with the 161.80% extension of pink W-i, measured from pink W-ii, and the 76.40% retrace of the 2022 Bear Market. Each are ~$4505+/-5.”
The index peaked that very same day our article was posted at $4458 and dropped to $4385 on July 6, solely to now sit at $4480s. See Determine 1 under. Thus, the SPX topped within the superb goal zone for gray W-iii, bottomed under the perfect W-iv goal zone, and reached the perfect W-v goal field. This implies there have been solely three waves up from the June 26 low at $4328 to the $4458 excessive. In addition to, there have been additionally solely three waves all the way down to $4385. Thus, it seems the inexperienced W-5 to the $4470-4500 zone set forth 4 weeks in the past is morphing right into a (uncommon) increasing diagonal.
Determine 1
Thus, as a result of hotter-than-expected ADP information final week the index took an sudden detour however remains to be attempting to satisfy its “inevitable future” of $4500+. Particularly, as stated in our final replace, we nonetheless view the index in a counter-trend rally (Blue W-B), we anticipate a three-wave advance: black W-a, -b, and -c. The latter will subdivide into 5 waves: pink W-i, ii, iii, iv, and v. See Determine 2 under. Of these 5 pink waves, W-iii ought to ideally full on the 161.8% extension ($4508). Usually, W-iv then strikes again to across the 100.0% extension (~$4240) earlier than W-v kicks in to ideally, the 176.4-200.0% Fibonacci-extensions ($4570-4675). On this case, inexperienced W-5 of pink W-iii most definitely morphed into the increasing (ending) diagonal.
Determine 2
Lastly, please observe the destructive divergences growing on the every day timeframe based mostly technical indicators (TIs), such because the MACD. It means the index is shifting larger with much less energy, much less momentum, and fewer liquidity. Though it’s a situation and never a set off, it should be famous and matches the EWP sample of a finishing third wave. The index should drop under the pink W-i (February 2) excessive at $4195 to strongly counsel the W-B counter-trend rally has accomplished and is working its manner decrease to the $2700-2900 zone. Please observe these upside ranges have been on our radar since October final 12 months. See once we had been on the lookout for the index to succeed in $4350-4650.
