By Laurie Chen, James Pomfret, Antoni Slodkowski
BEIJING/HONG KONG (Reuters) -Simply over a 12 months in the past, China gave Bashar al-Assad and his spouse a heat welcome throughout their six-day go to to the nation, providing the previous Syrian chief a uncommon break from years of worldwide isolation because the begin of a civil struggle in 2011.
Because the couple attended the Asian Video games, President Xi Jinping vowed to assist Assad in “opposing exterior interference” and in Syria’s rebuilding, whereas his spouse Asma was feted in Chinese language media.
However the abrupt finish to the rule of the authoritarian chief so explicitly backed by Xi solely final 12 months has dealt a blow to China’s diplomatic ambitions within the Center East and uncovered the boundaries of its technique within the area, analysts say.
A coalition of rebels seized Syria’s capital Damascus on Sunday after a lightning offensive that toppled Assad’s regime and ended his household’s 50-year dynasty.
“There’s been plenty of an exaggerated sense of China’s capacity to form political outcomes within the area,” stated Jonathan Fulton, a nonresident senior fellow on the Atlantic Council.
Whereas the collapse of the Assad regime was seen lowering the affect within the Arab world of his essential backers, Iran and Russia, it was additionally a blow for China’s world ambitions, stated Fulton.
“A whole lot of what (China has) been doing internationally has relied on assist with these nations, and their lack of ability to prop up their greatest companion within the Center East says rather a lot about their capacity to do a lot past the area.”
TACKLING HOTSPOTS
After China brokered a deal between long-time rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, Chinese language media praised Beijing’s rising profile in a neighbourhood lengthy dominated by Washington.
Wang Yi, China’s prime diplomat, stated the nation would play a constructive function in dealing with world “hotspot points”.
China additionally brokered a truce between Fatah, Hamas and different rival Palestinian factions earlier this 12 months and has made repeated requires a ceasefire in Gaza.
However regardless of bringing Center Japanese leaders to Beijing and rounds of “shuttle diplomacy” by its Center Japanese envoy, Zhai Jun, within the months since, Palestinians haven’t fashioned a unity authorities and the battle in Gaza continues.
“Assad’s sudden downfall isn’t a situation Beijing needs to see,” stated Fan Hongda, a Center East scholar at Shanghai Worldwide Research College. “China prefers a extra steady and unbiased Center East, as chaos or a pro-American orientation within the area doesn’t align with China’s pursuits.”
The response by China’s international ministry to Assad’s fall has been muted, specializing in the security of Chinese language nationals and calling for a “political resolution” to revive stability in Syria as quickly as attainable.
Ministry of international affairs spokesperson, Mao Ning, on Monday appeared to go away a gap for engagement with the longer term authorities: “China’s pleasant relations with Syria are for all Syrian individuals,” she stated.
Chinese language consultants and diplomats say Beijing will now bide its time earlier than recognising a brand new authorities in Damascus.
It may use its experience and monetary muscle to assist reconstruction, they are saying, however its commitments are more likely to be restricted as a result of China has sought to minimise monetary dangers abroad lately.
Syria joined China’s flagship Belt and Street Initiative in 2022, however there have been no vital investments by Chinese language corporations since, partly resulting from sanctions.
China is “not likely in a position to basically substitute the West both as an financial companion, or diplomatic or army drive within the area,” stated Invoice Figueroa, assistant professor on the College of Groningen and an professional in China-Center East relations.
“China in 2024 has means much less cash than China in 2013 – 2014, when the BRI was launched,” Figueroa stated. There’s “an apparent reassessment happening within the course of safer investments and lowering China’s dangers total,” he added.
