For these new to our Elliott Wave-based analyses and as a reminder to our common readers, now we have been monitoring an ending diagonal (ED) sample for the for over a month. In our earlier , we discovered that:
“the index has superior to the minimal upside goal [123.60% @ NDX21509] for the third wave extension inside an ending diagonal sample. Nevertheless, whereas the draw back danger is thus at the moment rising and applicable actions ought to be taken, e.g., elevate stops and take partial income, till we see at the least a break under NDX21200, we are able to nonetheless enable for increased costs … the crimson 138.20% extension at NDX21868… A break under that degree, particularly the (orang) third warning degree at NDX20600, will inform us that the crimson W-iv to ideally NDX20000-20300 is underway.”
Quick-forward: After our replace, the index didn’t break under NDX21200 however continued to NDX22133 by December 16, thus barely exceeding the $21868 degree. Nevertheless, FED-Wednesday, December 18th, erased the prior ten days of features. Following the continued rally, we had already raised the warning ranges for our Premium Members to NDX21600, and thus, no hurt was achieved.
The index bottomed on December 20 at NDX20913 and has rallied to the best inexperienced W-b goal zone, from which it was rejected as we speak. See Determine 1 under:
Determine 1. NDX day by day chart with detailed Elliott Wave depend and technical indicators
Thus, the anticipated crimson W-iii high got here and went, and the index ought to now be within the crimson W-iv. Given it topped exactly within the superb bounce (inexperienced W-b) goal zone, we count on it to succeed in NDX20300-600 for the inexperienced W-c of the crimson W-iv, as proven. Notice that these ranges align with what we already anticipated in late November (see ), displaying the forecasting energy one can take pleasure in utilizing the EW.
Thus, contingent on holding at the least under yesterday’s excessive at NDX21837, and particularly under the current all-time excessive at NDX22133, we must always count on the index to backside across the NDX20300-600 degree for the crimson W-iv earlier than it will possibly stage the subsequent extra vital, crimson W-v rally, to ideally NDX22825-23400.
