On December 21, 2024, my good friend Dan Klein, an economics professor at George Mason College, despatched out an e-mail to an inventory that I’m now not on however cc:ed me, with the next provide:
Anybody need to give me 8:1 odds that on Jan 21 Trump gained’t have been inaugurated?
He linked to this publish on X. I didn’t even trouble clicking on the hyperlink as a result of these odds seemed good to me. We went backwards and forwards a number of instances. I frightened about issues like intense storms that may sluggish it down by a day, and Dan was fairly gracious in making the deadline midnight on January 21.
So I provided $800 in opposition to his $100 and he accepted. We each hoped that I’d win.
I did win, and Dan has already knowledgeable me that he has despatched the verify. He gave me permission to publish on this.
Would I’ve provided 20:1 odds? No. Numerous issues may have gone fallacious. Trump may have been assassinated—he missed one try by turning his head. He may have been shot however not killed and laid up unconscious in mattress. Dan’s fear, which I now know by having clicked on the X file (pun supposed), is that the Democrats would have discovered a technique to sluggish it down. I believed that to be extremely unlikely. Regardless of the purpose for a delay, you’ll be able to in all probability see why each Dan and I hoped I’d win.
By the way in which, I’ve not often had something good to say about Kamala Harris. However I believed she confirmed great grace in overseeing the reporting of the electoral faculty votes on January 6.
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